Motilal Oswal Financial Services has renewed its buy recommendation on Adani Ports & SEZ, assigning a target price of Rs 1,820 that points to almost 39% potential gain from the current price of Rs 1,313. This outlook highlights the company's ability to withstand global shipping strains from tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. APSEZ's low reliance on liquid cargo and focus on container growth deliver stability amid sector-wide challenges.
Shielded from Liquid Cargo Volatility
APSEZ faces minimal risk from disruptions in oil trade routes because liquid cargo makes up less than 10% of its total volumes, with crude oil at only 5-6% and gas at about 2%. Vessel rerouting and port congestion plague Indian operations broadly, yet the company's diversified mix protects consolidated throughput. Container volumes surged 20% in recent periods, pushing overall growth to 14% in the fourth quarter of FY26 through February and 11% over nine months.
Coal volumes lagged due to soft demand, but take-or-pay contracts preserve profitability. APSEZ outperformed peers, with major ports at 8% growth and non-major ports at 3% year-to-date in FY26.
Scaling Ports, Logistics, and Marine Services
The firm controls India's largest private port network across 15 domestic sites and assets in Israel, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, and Australia, with 637 million metric tonne capacity. Haldia bulk terminal started operations in March 2026, aided by rail links. Domestic market share hit 26.4%, and container share climbed to 45.8% from 36% in 2020, boosted by Colombo automation, Dhamra, and Vizhinjam expansions.
Adani Logistics runs 12 parks, 132 trains, 3.1 million square feet of warehousing, and 1.3 million metric tonne grain silos. Plans allocate Rs 10-15 billion in FY26 and Rs 50 billion by FY30 to trucking via owned and third-party fleets. Marine services grew revenue 91% year-on-year in Q3FY26, with EBITDA margins above 55% and return on capital at 15%; management targets a doubling of this high-margin segment.
Strong Earnings Growth and Attractive Valuations
Projections show revenue rising from Rs 369 billion in FY26E to Rs 516 billion in FY28E, EBITDA from Rs 221 billion to Rs 310 billion, and adjusted PAT from Rs 129 billion to Rs 202 billion. This delivers 19% CAGR in revenue and EBITDA, 23% in PAT over FY25-28, with net debt-to-EBITDA falling from 2.1x to 0.9x and Rs 118 billion in cash.
At 23.5x FY26E P/E and 15.3x EV/EBITDA, shares appear undervalued versus the 15x FY28E EV/EBITDA target multiple. Support rests at Rs 1,250 and Rs 1,200, resistance at Rs 1,450 and Rs 1,600. APSEZ builds toward India's top integrated transport utility by 2029 through capacity builds, logistics integration, and marine gains.